THE UGLY AMERICAN AND THE UGLY IRANIAN -

THE CONSPIRACY THEORY


OVERVIEW

Almost the entire geopolitical scene of the Arab world is up for change. Regimes have tumbled faster than a house of cards; others are struggling to cling on to power, while the rest are in fear of the tsunami wave of the Arab revolutions to reach their shores.

Though there are strong arguments suggesting that these revolutions are home grown, the rising dust clouds in the deserts suggest that foreign convoys are hot on the trail of the next revolution. Little was known to the Arab leaders and the Arab people what Condalisa Rice had in mind when she spoke of the "New Middle East". And they were totally oblivious to Iranian ambition to export their Islamic revolution to the entire Islamic world. It is quiet amazing that these two nemeses, Iran & the United States were able to find common denominator under the fraction of the Middle East. No one is suggesting that such common interests were the resultant of direct negotiations or treaties – as it impossible to prove, rather it just maybe an evolution the new Imperialism and expansionism.

So, the theory's premise is that the "Great Satin" and the "Axis of Evil" have cooked up a recipe of satanic evil pot and by the end they will share a healthy dish of nations. The Americans consistently denied that such a plot exists and the Iranians don't even entrain any question in that regard. However, somewhere between the claims and denials lies the truth. 

Many observers in the Middle East point to these two countries as inciters of the problems we now face. This could not have happened easily if it was not helped by the brutal dictators of the Middle East who brought it upon themselves. If it had not been for their brutality we may not be in this situation However, our main concern here is Bahrain, but we can't isolate Bahrain from all that is happening around it. We shall examine up close and impersonal the American and Iranian interferences in this tiny island but from the pig picture and then zoom in on Bahrain.   

THE US HYPOTHESIS

The Americans are so predictable and easy to understand, that is if we pay a little attention to them. Their motives are well known and governed by the following factors – and others- and not necessarily in any order:   

1)   Israel's security.

America's 51^st state or so it appears to the people of the Arab World. No American Presidential candidate can win an election without affirming his total devotion to the existence and security of Israel. America spared no veto to stop any resolution in the UN against this State. Israel gets the latest technologically advanced weaponry with little or no questions asked in the Congress. While oppositions of less sophisticated arms to Saudi Arabia are usually very stiff and vigorous.

So, America considers the smallest of threats or even potential threats to Israel as a red line not to be crossed. Hence, neutralizing the hostile neighbors will be a source of comfort to both the Americans and the Israelis. Additionally, states that are busy with internal turmoil and divided upon itself is less likely to stand up to Israel on the diplomatic front let alone present any military threat.

With the Arab regimes on the ropes, that leaves "terrorist" organizations like Hamas to contend with. Again, Hamas and other Islamists groups will be hard pressed to find support if the friendly and sympathetic regimes are in dire need of help themselves. That will push them toward the only country ready, willing and able to supply with moral and logistical support – Iran. So, it is only natural to neutralize it as well by some sort of trade offs.     

And there is Hezbollah, the great nemesis of Israel and the US and in fact the entire western world. But leave Hezbollah for a little and will come back to it.

2)   Uninterrupted oil barrels at prices they control.

Though the Americans will not admit to it, but one of the major reasons to launch the Iraq war was to control the oil fields of Iraq. Through several agreements between the two countries, American companies now are heavily active in the exploration and export of Iraqi oil. America buys Iraqi oil below the market rates, and huge reserves waiting to be pumped to the American consumer for generations to come at preferential rates.

Such a thing was impossibility during the years of Saddam, now it is a dream comes true. However, America's thirst for oil – and the many industries and sub-industries associated with oil – can't be quenched with securing just the Iraqi oil, the more the merrier. Tempting oil fields lurk not so far from the Iraqi borders would be easy picking if the regimes in the Gulf States are weakened. The doors will be wide open for the American factor of stabilization and security.  

3)   National Security from terrorist attacks.

9/11 was a calamity with epic proportions for the United States, a one not to be repeated at all costs. The greatest power on earth woke up one day to find out that she was as vulnerable as a balloon to a needle. To achieve security, America went to war in Afghanistan and then Iraq. Several thousands of dead and injured soldiers and hundreds of billions of tax payer's money, and still America has not achieved security and still living in paranoia of the 9/11. America believes that regimes in the Middle East were somewhat responsible for the 9/11 and other terrorist bombings of American interests. They do realize they were not direct partners but their silence and look the other way, aided and abated Al-Qaedah. Americans won't miss a chance to remind all that the Al-Qaeda operatives are mostly of Arabian Gulf citizens. Monies where transferred in ease and comfort through the banks of Saudi and UAE under the cover of false humanitarian organizations.  

America is still edgy, just the very murmur of a potential attack and the entire country goes into a different warning color. And may God help you if you are a citizen of a middle eastern decent and travelling to a US airport during an orange or worse a red alert. It is indeed a humbling experience for that person.

So, back to our issue, America has a theory which assumes that weakening the regimes or replacing them will provide her with enhanced security.  In the 2 famous examples of Iraq and Afghanistan this theory proved invalid. We saw how the US was unable to provide security for its own military personal let alone civilians. But the theory is forging ahead to be implemented somewhere else.

4)   Puppet regimes it controls but not necessarily allies.

Back to my favorite examples of Iraq & Afghanistan, upon successful completion of the military operations in both countries, the US installed in power those it can depend on with proven track record of subservient allegiance to it. It serves the US well to have a corrupt and weak leader who will always turn to its lap for comfort and support. Corruption in Iraq today is the worst worldwide and Afghanistan is hot on its trail.  When self-serving politicians are busy stacking up millions of Dollars they are less likely to deviate from the path America paves for them. And if they dared to do so by virtue of a sudden conscious awakening, they would be brought down just as fast they have risen by piles of misconduct America holds.

Time will tell, but it is not a far fetched thought to see similar regimes created in all the Arab Spring countries. This would be a huge victory for the American State Department, the National Security and the CIA.

5)   Create markets for exports and mega projects in the absences of competition.

Here we go again, back to Iraq and Afghanistan. After the fall of Saddam's regime American companies had a windfall of lucrative contracts to cash in on the spoils of war. Contracts worth billions of dollars were handed to conglomerate companies with close ties to the Administration like Halliburton and oil companies. Some lesser valued contracts were given to European companies but notable absentees were the Russians and the Chinese. They were punished for their anti-war stance by denying them these rich contracts.

The American Administration(s) reeling under internal pressures due to sluggish economy with high unemployment and an all time high of faltering companies found a golden opportunity to stimulate its economy in these markets. Devastated countries need everything and America is coming to the rescue, for a price.

6)   The neutralization of Islam.     

Islam-o-phobia is alive and well in the West and in America. They view Islam & Muslims as the enemy and the source of troubles not only on the form of terrorism but on all fronts; socially, politically and economically.

America and the West would like Muslims to adhere to an Islam they define for them. A good Muslim is the one who prays and fasts and goes about eking his living oblivious to the jihad calls. The West is pressing Muslim countries to amend schools curricula to forge a modified Islam they can live with and accept.  

America is perusing a plan to polish up on its image with Muslims since it launched its war on Iraq. What better way to tell Muslims we care more than standing up in support of the oppressed? The US is capitalizing –or trying to – on the gains made by assisting and fueling the Arab Spring storms. As far as America is concerned, the more revolutions the better that serves its policies.

7)   The old divide and conquer scheme.

We had seen this policy from the British-French colonial days. They carved up the Middle East and created new countries and borders since the Sykes-Picot agreement. In the modern day of American colonialism era, the need to dissect the Middle East is of major importance.

An area of one fourth or more of Sudan was cut and made into a new a recognized new Christian country. The West recognized it faster than the new country can play its national anthem. Carving Sudan is not yet done; the West is working on Darfur now and may very well establish the Republic of Darfur.

Similar plans have been in the works for Iraq where the talk there is to make 3 countries out of it, a Kurdish State in the north, Shia in the south and Sunni in the middle. Saudi Arabia is under the American microscope as well. The ideal situation for America is to divide it up into 3 states as well. Even Egypt is not out of the realm of a division.  Yemen, UAE, Libya, Jordan and Syria are all on notice to go under the American scalpel.  America is using sectarian, religious, ethnic or tribal divisions as the criterion for the establishment of the new country.

It is not important that the newly formed countries lack the full means of survival such as infrastructure, economy, ports, currency etc. The important thing it stays under the American control and lifeline. The newly formed countries are not and will not be of any threat to the United States for many generations to come. Any financial aide the Americans give will be a drop in the bucket compared to fighting terrorism, and it will be able to retrieve it just as fast it gives it.

8)   Sectarian divide

Although some Arab Spring countries don't have sectarian issues as in Egypt and Tunisia other countries sectarianism is thriving. Countries like Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria are of multi tribes and sects.  Such problems are lurking in all the Gulf countries and Northern Africa, the next potential revolutions.

The "revolution" in Bahrain is the greatest example of sectarian uprising. Americans for several years nursed the Shia opposition and guided them to be what they are today. The rioters in Bahrain are all Shia, sprung from Shia villages and backstreets and created a wide divide in this small country. One only needs to take a quick look at the Wiki Leaks documents to see how American bred the Bahraini Shia, and wonder why.

9)   The export of Americanism

 America has long worked on exporting its own culture to the world. Whether it is movies, pop culture, fast food culture, cars or even jeans, America wants to be in the daily life of every person on earth.  A young man drives up to Starbucks in his shinny Mustang listening to Rhiana on the way. He spells a little of his latte on his Lee jeans, but who cares its jeans. He has a fast meal at McDonalds, and off to see the latest Hollywood movie. After the movie, no harm in paying another visit to Starbuck to re-load on some caffeine until he meets up with his friends at Chili's for dinner.

That is how America wants all of us to be, Americanized. They want us to think, eat, drink, talk and wear American. America will be your idol, by the way – don't forget to watch an episode of American Idol on TV station near you. It is very doubtful that young people will turn on something they idolized, so America is safe.

THE IRANIAN HYPOTHESIS

Unlike the US, Iran is not a nation of institutions nor do they understand separation of powers among the branches of the government. Their entire system is based on a branch of the Shia sect which believes in a supreme leader who is put on this earth with a divine covenant. This person was Khomeini and now it is Khaminai. His say is final, unquestionable and must be obeyed by all. The Iranian agenda is less sophisticated than that of the Americans but evil no less, and all derived from the teachings of Khomeini.

1)   Exporting the Iranian revolution to the Islamic World.

In his first days in Tehran after the fall of the Shah, Khomeini said in a long speech that this revolution must be exported to the entire Islamic world and indeed to the entire world. When he spoke of the revolution he actually meant his faith. Although Shia claim to be Muslims and they have much in common with the Sunnis, their version of Islam is so out of line with the Sunni Version. Shia in the Muslim world are a minority constituting less than 10% - although accurate figures are not available. 

Khomeini's ambition was to work to infiltrate the Muslim world and to convert them to Shia. Of course this put him in direct confrontation with the two pillars of Islam; Saudi and Al-Azhar in Egypt. The Iranians had work cut out for them in face of a stiff resistance of the Sunnis who consider the Shia as Pagans or atheists.

After the fall of Saddam, the Iranian influence was so evident; it is just easy to point out that no Iraqi government may be formed without the blessing of the Ayatollahs in Tehran. It was interesting to see American-Iranian negotiations to form a government in Iraq that both countries can agree on. Despite the fact that one candidate won the elections fair and square, both Washington and Tehran decided that their interests will better served with someone else who lost that election, so it was. So much for American democracy.

The Iranian worked to export their ideology to Africa where poverty and ignorance are rampant. But any headway they made there was so menial in comparison with the amount of money they poured. But they keep plugging away. They tried in vein to penetrate the Arab World with little or no progress to show for it, so on to the Iranian plan B.

With Iraq under their belt – and that was a major thing for them, one can only happen with the assistance and allowance of the Americans, they looked to other countries. They made series of alliances agreements with the Syrians under the pretense of facing the Israelis. They built up and strengthened Hezbollah in Lebanon; they supported the Shia in the Gulf countries and Yemen.

The Gulf countries are inhabited by Shia with largest as a  percentage of population are in Bahrain –about 50%, then Yemen, then Saudi where they control the Eastern Province , Kuwait though they are less than 6% they do control the financial and banking sectors, in Qatar , Oman and the UAE.

The Iranian regime seeing an opportunity in the Gulf States, knowing they will fail in their bid to make them Shia, then why not the best thing, taking it over through the Shia living there by means of revoltutions. They armed the Yemenis to the teeth which enabled the Yemenis to take on the government. The Shia revolt was crushed only after the Saudi intervened – that how strong they were- but Yemen was reeling under unpopular regime revolted all together and now the Iranians are just waiting for someone else do the work for them before they step back in.

In Bahrain, the Shia revolution has been going on since mid February and no sign of let up. The Iranians were generous with their support, but the Saudi stepped in to foil the plot yet again. The Iranians tried to return the favor to Saudis, so they got the Shia in the Eastern Province to move against the regime, but that Saudi had none of that and they crushed them very swiftly. The Iranians are working on the other countries but in accordance to a time frame. Their goal now is Bahrain.

2)   Hezbollah

Oh yes, a major terrorist organization that is well organized. This group is more of a danger to the West than Al-Qaeda ever was. Very well armed, well disciplined army, and quiet rich. Instead of building a militia, Iran made a state within the state. Hezbollah owns banks, media houses,  hospitals, runs social security, schools, owns communication network and of course a well trained army that is willing to die for their cause.   

Hezbollah in fact owns Lebanon, and when the moment comes they will take it over, if so Tehran orders. This is of great discomfort to the other groups in Lebanon; Sunnis, Druz, Christians and many others. Hezbollah operative are in every capital of the world and may strike at the orders of Nasarallah with no questions asked. For the time being their roles are limited to facilitating money transfers and gathering intelligence.

Hezbollah has been instrumental in training and arming groups in the Gulf, mostly in Bahrain, Saudi and Kuwait.  They will come handy when the conflict turns violent. Several people arrested in Bahrain confessed to their association with Hezbollah, and that is worrisome to Bahrainis who may see some of this violence sooner than later.

Iran is using this terrorist organization to do its dirty deeds and evolved as an extended arm of its secret services. Branches of Hezbollah were set-up in Iraq and Kuwait, but Bahraini government aware of the threats, refused to grant a permit for a political society to operate under that name. A compromise with the government resulted in Al-Wefaq Islamic Society with only the name of Hezbollah absent but nothing else. Al-Wefaq has been instrumental in building up this revolution and overthrow the legitimate government of Bhrain. It is without a doubt that dormant cells of Hezbollah are working underground in all Gulf countries waiting for their time to do the needful.

3)   Control of the Arab World

Iran made no secret of it, they want to be the dominate sect of Islam. Everything they do is toward achieving this goal. Their military is well disciplined and produces most of their weapons. Granted it is much less sophisticated than that of the West, but very capable of doing major damage. Their dream is to own a nuclear device, this will give them a huge advantage over its peaceful neighbors.

The mother load for Iran is Saudi Arabia, if they were able to control the Muslim shrines in Mecca and Medina then they have it made. This is where Bahrain comes in handy, only 18 km from the Eastern Shores of Saudi it will be a perfect springboard for the Iranian forces to swim across if they so desired.

First step then, take Bahrain, you do that by destabilizing the country, claim social and political injustice, show regime brutality, win world sympathy and viola you got yourself a new Shia regime that is under the direct orders from Tehran. Then start moving the Shia masses in the Eastern province and with a little help from the new Bahrain, an independent province will be announced in no time. From there it is a drive through the desert to Mecca.

If this scenario ever happens  -God forbids - the other Gulf States would fall like dominos, and off to Egypt to control Al-Azhar. Of course, they can dream all they want, but they have the conquest desire built into their belief.

The US has defense agreements with all the Gulf countries, so one would say they will step in, true unless the conspiracy theory holds water then anything is possible.  

4)   Major Power

Iran wants to be respected and recognized as the Superpower of the Middle East. But that is not enough; it wants to go head to head with the West. Again, to be of any worth on the international front it must own and produce its own nuclear weapons. The country is supposed to be rich, but in fact a high percentage of Iranians live below poverty line, International sanctions against it are not helping but nonetheless, it is a country with healthy income. But the problem for the Iranians is that the biggest chunk of their income is going toward armament.

In reality, Iran is not in a direct conflict with anyone, not the West and not Israel. In fact for an assumed enemy, they have very healthy trade relations with Israel. So the weapons they are piling may only be used for 2 reasons; to get respect of the West and to use it on your neighbors. As a point on the side, it is quiet interesting to note that these weapons are of offensive nature. You can't in all honesty and strategically call a missile of 2000 km range a defensive weapon.

A RECIPE FOR DISASTER

Let us look at some facts :

FACT – The US pulled all of its fleet from Bahrain in the middle of March when rumors of Iranian involvement               was about to intervene in Bahrain.

FACT – The US has been more than sympathetic to the Shia cause in Bahrain.

FACT -  President Obama mentioned the opposition by name in his speech at the UN.

FACT – Iran released the very same day Obama's UN speach 2 American "spies". One is left.

FACT – Condalisa Rice spoke of the "NEW MIDDLE EAST" .

FACT -  Iran and the US agreed on their support of the Shia in Bahrain

FACT -  The US Embassy had regular secret meetings with the opposition in Bahrain.

FACT -  The US Embassy gave leadership courses for the opposition in the US and in Qatar.

FACT -  The US established in Doha a center to follow up on the progress of the revolution in Bahrain and others.

FACT -  The US pressure on Bahrain's Government is giving an added strength to the opposition.

FACT -  The US is sending a new Ambassador to Bahrain who is not well liked by the people and maybe the Government as well.

FACT -  Britain dealt with the rioters in a much harder way than Bahrain did with its rioters but no condemnation from Obama.

FACT – Iranian and American media are spreading similar lies about Bahrain as if written by the same agency.

FACT -  Iraqi Premier on regular contact with the opposition in Bahrain and lobbies on their behalf.

FACT -  Iran ordered loyalist groups in Iraq to cease attacks on US Forces.

If we were to assume that such a conspiracy does exist, then 2 questions come to mind; what's in it for each party and what does it entail??

Both Americans and Iranians want to achieve their targets as discussed earlier. America would not at all mind regime changes not only in Bahrain but also in all Gulf countries, and nor it would mind the dissection of Saudi Arabia into 3 States. This is will serve them well. The new states will be weak, dependent, poor but rich in easy to tap resources. For this to occur, Iran has to be involved.

Additionally, there is much antagonism for the Saudis – and the Gulf countries – in the US. Since the 70's and the Saudis were stereotyped in the most demeaning way in the American media. That was due to the oil embargo of 1973 and the Americans saw that they were manipulated by the Saudis because they control the oil. The resentment was at all time high after the attacks of 9/11. Some Senators suggested back then to bomb Mecca, while less aggressive Senators were contented to demand freezing of their assets and breaking off diplomatic relations.

The Americans feel they can get all they want from Saudi and more if AL SAUD are out of power. Again, Iran is the one to do that on their behalf in lieu of the Iranian ambitions in the Arabian Peninsula. It would not be so easy for the Iranian's to cross more than 300 km of heavily watched and guarded waters, but from Bahrain it will only a skip, a hop and a jump into the water to Khobar.

The goals and interests of Iran and America are mutual in the Gulf. Though may not have been a result of direct negotiations between the 2 countries, but they do merge. And undoubtedly they both understand it. But as a goodwill gesture, the Iranians ordered a halt of operations against the US in Iraq, and the favor returned by directing the American media to demonize the Bahraini government.

America pulled its fleet out of Bahrain came after intelligence data suggested that Iran is coming, so as a good gesture it sent its fleet sailing. This method was used before. We all remember the American Ambassador to Baghdad telling Saddam that America will look the other way if you went on to take Kuwait, and he played his part so very well. But when the part was over America stepped in to clean up in more ways than one.

Since it worked so well before, play it again Uncle Sam. The US will look the other way if AhmadiNejad was dumb enough to venture toward Bahrain. The Americans would possibly be willing to let him reach Mecca before they came to do their part. But what they are not willing to do is to allow the Iranians acquiring nuclear weapons, and the Iranians are on the know. So in order to play their part they may need to show a little goodwill and delay the nukes acquisition, but what they do in secret chambers underground is off any gestures.

Additionally, the Iranians aided and continue to aid the Americans with their war on terror especially when it comes to Al-Qaeda. Such information is passed on to the Americans in secrecy of course, but stories of their contribution filled the pages of the press. This deed did not go unnoticed, and the Americans reciprocated with one condemnation of Bahrain after another, a small price to pay.  

It could just be a case where America is using Bahrain as bait hoping the hungry Iranians would bite. If America and its NATO allies indeed want to destroy the Iranian army, it will be costly on Iranian soil, but on, let's say Saudi soil the matter will be much easier. They can easily cut off their marine supply line in the Gulf and the rest would be history. America then kills several birds with one stone. 

In a nutshell, there are no permanent enemies when it comes to politics, nor permanent friends, there are just common interests, pure and simple. No price is too low or too high, everything is on the table up for grabs. The Gulf countries are no more than cards on a monopoly board.

   

Dr. Know